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Theres been exhaustive talk about the inevitable regression facing the Colorado Avalanche - a team that more or less rode the percentages to an improbable playoff berth last season. We no longer approach teams like last years Avalanche club with questions about whether their strategy at even strength - which at least last year, was get out-shot and win regularly - is sustainable for the long-term. The real question is whether teams in these precarious situations can do enough with their current roster to improve on last years performances and hope to mitigate the expected drop-off in point production. Colorados a particularly interesting case for this. The Avalanche may have been treated as a paper tiger all through last year despite their winning ways, but there are legitimate questions about whether player development can stave off some of the expected regression. Optimists point to the collection of young, near-prime talent on the roster which includes Gabriel Landeskog, Matt Duchene and Ryan OReilly. They are three of the leagues better forwards and the team has certainly found their starting goaltender in Semyon Varlamov. Perhaps the most intriguing name on the roster is wunderkind Nathan MacKinnon, who is coming off a brilliant rookie year. The 2013 No. 1 overall pick is an unbelievable combination of speed and versatility and scored at a comparable rate to that of Chicagos Marian Hossa and Philadelphias Claude Giroux last season. Colorado will only rely on him more and his average ice time - which was 17:21 last year - should go up this season. And MacKinnons underlying numbers from his Calder Trophy-winning campaign are fascinating. A good chunk of statistical oddity is tied up in his home and road splits, which were night and day. Like most other players (and teams) around the league, MacKinnon saw a drop-off in his performance on the road. But MacKinnons slide was particularly steep - enough that it should warrant investigation by a team looking to immediately improve their 5-on-5 play next season. To quickly capture MacKinnons drop-off, consider this - no skater that logged more than 500 minutes over the last two seasons saw road depreciation quite like his: MacKinnons Corsi percentage was 18 per cent worse on the road. That was well above the league average, which was about four per cent worse for the same collection of regular skaters. So yes, that drop is a bit out of the norm. Now lets look at a table of some of the other pertinent underlying data for MacKinnon from last season: Im going to touch on most of these metrics individually, but the numbers that should immediately stand out are his team-relative numbers: Relative Corsi Percentage (or the difference in Corsi Percentage a team experiences when a player is on the ice versus off) and Relative Goal Percentage (or the difference in Goal Percentage a team experiences when a player is on the ice versus off). At home, MacKinnon was a positive possession player (3.0 per cent) and significant plus-goal player relative to teammates (9.4 per cent). On the road, MacKinnon was a negative possession player (-3.3 per cent) and floated around the team average in the goal department (0.5 per cent). The raw Corsi For and Corsi Against totals show what kind of trouble MacKinnon ran into on the road. The reality is that MacKinnon and his linemates spent way too much time defending the play. At home, Colorado was +10.8 shot attempts per 60 minutes with MacKinnon on the ice. On the road, that number spiraled to -10.4. The main reason for this insane shot-differential swing is tied up in MacKinnons road Corsi Against per 60 – a number so high, only three forwards (Torontos James van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak, and Buffalos Tyler Ennis) finished worse. Those ugly road shot differentials led to even uglier goal differentials, as noted in the Goals For/Goals Against rows. For every 60 minutes played at home with MacKinnon on the ice, Colorado was +0.7 in the goal column. For every 60 minutes played on the road with MacKinnon on the ice, Colorado was -0.6 in the goal column. Its for those reasons that I found MacKinnons zone start numbers in the initial table interesting. While MacKinnon enjoyed some favorable zone start situations on home ice, he was in more of a defensive role on the road. His raw offensive zone start percentages dropped 5.52 per cent and the percentage of offensive-zone draws he took relative to his teammates actually swung into the negatives. The drop in offensive zone starts meant less offensive opportunity immediately following the restart of play for MacKinnon. I was curious about whether MacKinnon was getting burned by a particular aspect of the zone starts beyond just opening more in the defensive zone last year. So I decided to pull out his Corsi Percentage data in the 30-second window following every draw he was on the ice for last year, then splitting by the outcome of that draw (i.e. win/loss) and venue (i.e. home/road). Was it possible that MacKinnons underlying numbers were getting dinged by something immediately off of the draw? Theres not much difference there. I think its safe to say that MacKinnons raw drop in zone starts – combined with a slight uptick in competition, team effects, and the assortment of subtleties that make road hockey difficult for all (e.g. long change, general risk aversion) – were the contributors behind his slide, as opposed to a singular aspect of the game where MacKinnon really deteriorated. The mere fact MacKinnon was able to have such an explosive season as an 18-year-old is enormously impressive; most players his age are shielded altogether from NHL competition and the few who do get minutes generally sink before they swim. MacKinnon may have looked like a boy amongst men at times on the road last season, but the opposite was true at the Pepsi Center. That part shouldnt be ignored. But for now, the MacKinnon question is an avenue worthy of further investigation. Authentic NBA Jerseys Cheap .C. Lions 35-14, was named the CFLs offensive player of the week Tuesday. 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San Francisco is still in good shape to clinch a wild-card berth, although it dropped into a tie with Pittsburgh in the race for the top spot.Waco, TX (SportsNetwork.com) - Baylor was tested Monday, but the 22nd- ranked Bears survived with a 70-66 win over the visiting Southern Jaguars. Johnathan Motley led Baylor (10-1) with 19 points, and Rico Gathers added 16 points and a game-high 11 rebounds. Southern (3-10) remained winless against D-I opponents this season. Adrian Rodgers paced the Jaguars with 26 points, making 9-of-17 shots from the field. Trelun Banks contributed 13 points and had seven assists. The opportunistic Jaguars stayed in the game by taking advantage of Bears turnovers. Baylor committed 13 turnovers, and Southern converted them into 18 points. It appeared that Baylor was going to put Southern away with 3 1/2 minutes remaining in the game when four straight free throws extended its lead to a game-high 11 points. Even though the Bears did not hit a shot from the floor in the final six minutes, they sealed the win at the foul line by missing just one of 112 attempts down the stretch.dddddddddddd Without Rodgers, Southern may have let the game get away in the second half. He scored 15 of its final 18 points of the contest on 6-of-9 shooting after the break. The rest of the team combined to shoot 5-of-18. The Jaguars got back in the game when Banks hit a pair of triples to start a 12-0 run that gave Southern its first lead of the game with a minute left in the first half. It wound up being its only lead of the game. Baylor used four free throws from Motley to take a 34-31 lead at the break. Game Notes Baylor is 7-0 against Southern, but this was the only meeting decided by fewer than 11 points ... This is the first time this season an opponent has scored more than 65 points against the Bears ... Baylor is 10-0 when scoring 60 or more points ... 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